Fischer opens his article with a list of some of the many crises facing the world in 2016, from China’s downturn to plunging oil prices to Europe’s migrants to Russia’s imperial ambitions. “Wherever one looks,” he writes, “chaos seems to be ascendant.”

Sobering as it is, Fischer’s identification of world problems is not what is most interesting. Rather, it’s his views on the scale of devastation these crises will inflict, and how these crises will ultimately be fixed. “What is not clear is the context in which the response [to these crises] will come—if at all. In which political structures, by whose initiative, and under which rules will these questions be negotiated—or, if negotiation proves impossible, FOUGHT OVER?” (emphasis added throughout).

Fischer recognizes that man today lacks the political structures and institutions, and the collective will and leadership, required to solve his problems. So, with no easy remedies at our disposal, what does Fischer envision happening?

Political and economic order—particularly on a global scale—does not simply arise from peaceful consensus or an unchallenged claim by the most powerful. It has always been the result of a struggle for domination—often BRUTAL, BLOODY AND LONG—between or among rival powers. ONLY THROUGH CONFLICT ARE THE NEW PILLARS, INSTITUTIONS AND PLAYERS OF A NEW ORDER ESTABLISHED.

This is realpolitik, or “practical politics.” Fischer sees the world as it truly is: messy, competitive and dangerous. He understands human nature and sees that there is no way the current problems can be solved through consensus and diplomacy. There’s too much self-interest, too much self-determination, too much hatred. Fischer has studied history and understands that when the crises are as dire as they are today—clashing national interests, massive and widespread political, economic and social instability—war is imminent and unavoidable.

You have to admire his pragmatism, his firm grasp on reality. This is a rare, almost extinct, quality among American and British politicians. But it’s a sobering view too: Fischer believes conflict and war are inevitable. And it’s impossible not to wonder, Is this what his counterparts in Germany believe too?

Fischer’s view on the chief cause of the present global instability is interesting too. “Today, the Pax Americana that ensured a LARGE DEGREE OF GLOBAL STABILITY has begun to fray,” he writes. The prevailing view is that postwar, “imperialist” America is the cause of all the world’s woes, from the chaos in the Middle East to worldwide financial instability to global warming to the rise of radical Islam. It’s a complex discussion, and it’s true that America’s actions have contributed to some of these problems. But how refreshing to see a man—a former foreign minister and vice chancellor of Germany no less—recognize the virtues of America’s global leadership.

As America’s global presence continues to shrink, Fischer believes the world will only grow more dangerous and unstable. He continues: “In fact, the main challenge of the coming years is likely to be managing America’s declining influence. There is no framework for the retirement of a hegemon. While the dominant power can be brought down through a struggle for domination, voluntary retreat is not an option, because the resulting power vacuum would endanger the stability of the entire system.” The decline of a dominant power can be as disruptive and transformative as the emergence of a new dominant power.